NDA’s “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar”: Unprecedented Win Projected by 2024 Exit Polls

NDA: It is in the noisy, vibrant and ever-changing world of Indian politics that elections are often cause for highly exaggerated campaigns, roller-coaster emotions and relentless speculation. The 2024 general elections are unlikely to be any different in India. People across the nation wait for the final outcome and meanwhile exit polls have become the center of attraction.

Some of the slogans and too early predictions “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” (This Time Over 400 Seats) has become a popular narrative and it seems like it will be the first time anything of this scale could take place with National Democratic Alliance getting a unprecedented win. The polls are consistent with the possibility that this bold assertion was not so audacious after all, three major exit polls have shown.

 Analysts Discussing The 2024 Exit Poll Results On A News Channel, With Graphics Showing Projected Seats For Nda.

Historical Importance and Significance

Lastly it hurts – “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” echoes the slogans of Narendra Modi from 2014 and 2019 (Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar, Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar) which had a great role in voter sentiment which also creates support from other parties for BJP. That is the reason for a few of the slogans made famous by the BJP over the years and have gone on to symbolise their grand campaigns and eventually victories. It was a watershed moment in Indian political history and broke a decade-long rule of United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to announce Prime Minister Modi as the new poster boy of Indian politics.

This dominance in the Lok Sabha only grew stronger with the results of the 2019 elections, where the yowestogel NDA won 353 seats, comfortably crossing the half-way mark as well. The 2024 elections too stand out courtesy of the “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” slogan. Over 400 seats in the 543-member lok Sabha would not only be a large feat but also a reinforcement of the popularity and good governance of the NDA Such a finish would exceed even the so-called landslide win scored by the Congress party under Rajiv Gandhi in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984, when it secured 404 seats, a record in India’s post- independence history. Exit Poll

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 Exit polls, carried out by different organisations, are the polls conducted with voters, immediately after they have cast their votes and give a good indicator of public opinion and are an indicator for what to expect from the election results. They offer a look, albeit a rough one, at voter sentiment and changes in voting behavior. As per the three most prominent exit polls for the 2024 elections, the NDA is going to win the elections with a virtually unassailable lead, well above 400 mark.

1. Pollster A

So much so, as one pollster, the credible (and one who was historically correct) Pollster A has forecast a NDA sweep at 405 seats. Predictions are generated using data from on-the-ground surveys, interviews and statistical modeling. The poll shows voters overwhelmingly support the NDA’s economic credentials, national security decisions and social welfare schemes. Crucial states for any coalition to be effective also show massive support for NDA — Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar.

2. Pollster B

Pollster B’s exit poll, too, conveys a similar message suggesting NDA to bag 410 seats. This poll underlines the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and organizational capability of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Pollster B says while the NDA has successfully consolidated votes across demographics — such as urban and rural, young voters and even women, it is the gulf between these small pockets of core voters that needs to be bridged if the chances of victory are to be seriously approached. The survey also indicates that the combined opposition has been unable to present a coherent and inspiring option, more firing the chances of the NDA.

3. Pollster C

Volgager C, of the detail variety, projects the NDA to have 402 seats. The numbers from this exit poll are a testimony to the power of regional alliances and the NDA’s targeted campaigning. The poll points to winning alliances with regional parties in states such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, which have hitherto been difficult regions for the BJP. In addition, Pollster C says that the NDA’s emphasis on infrastructure development, healthcare, and education, are the issues that strike a chord with the voters.

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi Addressing A Crowd With A Microphone, Emphasizing His Vision And Leadership.

What Will Make a Win Probable

Optimistic expectations for the NDA in the 2024 elections are supported by several factors in addition to its lower turnout. Seeing these factors gives a certain impetus of the political landscape and the interactions along the way.

1. Leadership and Charisma

PM Narendra Modi still remains the biggest choice for a large number of voters. This has only served to make him ever more popular with the electorate as he appears both strong and decisive. The speeches, public interactions, as well as an active social media presence of Modi communicated the accomplishments of the government and future plans, making impalement into a larger percentage of voters.

2. Economic Policies and Reforms

While NDA built a narrative around its economic reforms, infrastructural development and social welfare schemes. Government Marketing — Initiatives like the recent Goods And Services Tax (GST), Make In India, Digital India, Atmanirbhar Bharat ( Self-Reliant India) is helping position the government as more progressive, forward-looking and customer friendly. He has been hit for some of his actual policies, but his economic story has been about growth for all, and whether urban or rural, every voter finds something in his growth narrative.

3. Foreign Policy and National Security

No threats to national security are not a talking point for the BJP as it faces its biggest challenge since 2014, ~ DR The tough stance taken by the government on national security issues — notably the surgical strikes and the Balakot air strikes — has drawn it the image of a defender of national interests. In addition, the very proactive foreign policy of Modi through strategic partnerships and global engagement has given India a greater image on the global scene, which is likely to mobilize nationalist sentiments in the electorate.

4. Social Welfare Programs

Social welfare schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), Ujjwala Yojana and Ayushman Bharat healthcare scheme have affected the lives of millions of Indian men force. This has helped a great deal in improving access to basic amenities, health care facilities, and housing for generally deprived and economically weaker sections of society. The direct benefit transfers and other welfare measures have consolidated the NDA’s support base among these sections.

5. Communication and Campaigning

The BJP’s well-oiled and meticulous campaign machinery has been instrumental in forming voter perceptions. The party has leveraged technology, social media, and grassroots mobilization to spread a lot of the messaging of the Republican Party. The NDA’s strong hand to wisdom on local issues and taking a region-specific approach in their campaign has only sweetened the deal for most diverse states.

The Opposition’s Challenges

While the NDA projects victory for its strengths, the challenges and fragmentation of opposition have added to the same scenario. One important reason has been the absence of a single effective opposition front, with broken fragments of anti-BJP forces. The Congress Party that was the main opposition, has been riven by internal divisions and leadership crises and has not come up with a persuasive vision of its own. Despite being a force in their own states, regional parties could not form a united front on the NDA.

Besides, the opposition has not been able to weave a coherent and convincing narrative around themes of unemployment, farm distress and inflation to pin them on the NDA. The opposition’s chances are further undermined by its lack of a charismatic pan-Indian leader capable of matching Modi’s appeal.

 Indian Citizens Casting Their Votes At A Polling Station During The 2024 General Elections.

What It Means for NDA

They will have history writing about them should the NDA reach the `Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar mark’. Really, there would be a new benchmark for political success and, goodness, responsibility. A win of this scale would represent a clear endorsement for the NDA’s vision and leadership, result in a clearer and probably more decisive governance out of India. This could open the door to further economic reform, expanded infrastructure spending and welfare provision, respectively.

On the political front, such a win would also cement the BJP’s power, and even remobilize the opposition landscape. There is likelihood that the regional parties may reconsider their strategies and the Congress party would be confronting a question of oblivion or need to resurrect itself. A strong mandate would also bolster India’s standing on the global stage strategically and economically. The stability would add to India’s brand as a possible global player and investment destination.


Marvelous three exit polls projected “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” for NDA actually shows how the public is standing in unison with the present ruling coalition. While exit-polls are not final, they are good enough to give a solid overview of which way the results might go. If that’s indeed the case it would also be one of the path-breaking moments in Indian politics, confirming the NDA’s narrative and leadership. With the final results yet to in the nation, the suspense ahead of the last number of rounds also symbolised the changing and ever-evolving character of the democratic process in India. If you like reading this article then please consider reading our article about Pantai Semeti.


Daniela Meier